172 Is INFLATION running Rampant? – Real Estate Investor Show- Hard Money for Real Estate Investors!
Join the Carolina Capital team LIVE every Thursday at 12 pm ET for the Real Estate Investor Show – Hard Money for Real Estate Investors!
This week, Bill Fairman, Wendy Sweet, and Jonathan Davis will be providing an update on foreclosure & eviction moratoriums as well as talking about INFLATION!
Is inflation running rampant — or is it normal to see an $800 increase on a refrigerator in just one year?!
0:01 – Introduction: “ Is it normal to have a Samsung refrigerator go up to $800 in less than a year? ”
1:23 – Wednesday with Wendy: https://calendly.com/wendysweet/wednesdays-with-wendy
3:30 – Breaking News
4:47 – All transactions in cryptocurrency are monitored by IRS
5:25 – Unemployment numbers are below expectations
7:55 – Interest Rates are sitting still
8:17 – Mortgage applications & Inventory are still down
9:06 – FHA allows rental histories as part of the qualifying for any Freddie Loans and automated underwriting
10:06 – Oil prices are dropping
14:07 – Ugly Question of the day: Is inflation running rampant — or is it normal to see an $800 increase on a refrigerator in just one year?!
18:07 – “ The Bubble Talk”
21:28 -Why rental prices are going up?
26:49 – Supreme court says it’s unconstitutional for the CDC to extend the rent moratorium
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Bill Fairman (00:01):
That folks, is it normal to have a Samsung refrigerator go up $800 in less than a year? That, and more after this
Bill Fairman (00:27):
Hi everyone. Thanks for joining us on the real estate investor show. I am Bill Fairman. This is Jonathan Davis. Wendy is still vacationing. She may or may not have a signal. Obviously may not is the case cause she’s not on right now. I think she’s using the old string and cup routine coming through but thanks for joining us on the Real Estate Investor Show Hard Money for Real Estate Investors. We are Carolina Capital Management. We are lenders in the Southeast real estate investors. If you’re interested in borrowing money, go to CarolinaHardMoney.com and clicking on the apply. Now tab, if you are a passive investor looking for passive returns, then click on the accredited investor tab. Don’t forget the like share subscribe, hit the bell. And lastly, don’t forget the sign up for Wednesday with Wendy. Wendy gives up 30 minutes per person, every Wednesday, except for when she’s on vacation, obviously to talk about real estate matters. I mean, you can talk about other things if you want, but you’re wasting your time. If you don’t, then there’s a link to her calendar. She’s a actually backed up through September so early
Jonathan Davis (02:00):
It might be early October now.
Bill Fairman (02:02):
Yeah. Absolutely. So how’s it going?
Jonathan Davis (02:06):
It’s going great. Going great, Bill. How are you doing?
Bill Fairman (02:09):
I’m doing good.
Jonathan Davis (02:11):
Bill Fairman (02:13):
I got the sniffles and that’s okay. You know, I think it’s allergies. If I go get tested for allergies, I’ll call it COVID they need that. They need the extra,
Jonathan Davis (02:25):
Bill Fairman (02:25):
Yeah, they need the numbers up so they can scare more of us.
Jonathan Davis (02:33):
And I still love, you know, talking about that, you know, the CDC releasing numbers on Florida, where they combine multiple days into one, it was like, oh, Florida’s highest three-day average ever. And then, you know, for the department of health was like, you combined a bunch of days together. I’m sure it was a mistake.
Bill Fairman (02:51):
Yeah, yeah, absolutely. We are definitely living in some interesting times. If you’re trying to get any work done on your home, it’s amazing. And I know we talked about this before with, our friend Alastar McDonald, where he lived in Zimbabwe and they had to pay their employees in the morning and in the afternoon or they couldn’t pay for dinner
Jonathan Davis (03:22):
You can’t even pay their contractors cause they don’t even show up.
Bill Fairman (03:23):
Well, that’s true. I had that same, same issue here recently. So let’s talk about a little breaking news that’s going on and if you don’t mind. I mean, obviously there’s a lot of breaking news. We’ve got the Southern border, we’ve got Afghanistan, what’s going on in Afghanistan. We’ve got the infrastructure bill that is apparently doesn’t have a whole lot to do with infrastructure still. Even though this first one has a lot more in it about infrastructure, then the next one coming up.
Jonathan Davis (04:10):
I wonder what percentage, if we could break it out percentages. I don’t know what that is. I just, if someone knows tap, you know, chat that in kind of use our little, our chat box there.
Bill Fairman (04:19):
Oh yeah. I’ll tell you about that. Chat on the right or underneath, depending on the platform you’re on.
Jonathan Davis (04:23):
I’m just curious what that is.
Bill Fairman (04:24):
Yeah. Well, Scott was just telling us that the bill was 2,400 pages long and you know, the senators and the Congress people, they’re not reading that whole thing. They have staff that reads it for them. So there’s going to be things that are going to be missed. I know Scott had mentioned that towards the end, there’s a thing about crypto currency in there that they have to report all transactions to the IRS because crypto currency, although they’d call it currency, isn’t considered currency.
Jonathan Davis (04:57):
Bill Fairman (04:57):
It’s an asset.
Jonathan Davis (05:01):
It has nothing backing it. I mean, it’s not, currency is backed by something.
Bill Fairman (05:04):
Right. So when you buy and sell crypto, it’s going to be just like any other stock or a solid asset that you’ve got to pay capital gains on it. And so they’re trying to figure out ways to tax everything. Keep that in mind if you own any crypto stuff. So unemployment came out today and it was below expectations. It was like 300 and, oh I’m sorry. Yeah. 345,000 claims. They were expecting 365. So it’s totally below expectations.
Jonathan Davis (05:42):
Bill Fairman (05:42):
And then continue in claims. I mean, we’re down a 2.6 or 7 million so those continue to go down, but you’re still gonna have a lot of people that are sitting on the sidelines depending on where they are and then certain industries that didn’t really come back from this. You may or may not want to come back, even if you’re employed in that industry. Depending on how old you are and you’re closer to retirement anyway, right?
Jonathan Davis (06:15):
Yeah. And the people who are the owners of whatever industry, you know, that is, the small business, are they too heavily regulated or is it too onerous right now to even come back?
Bill Fairman (06:26):
No, I really feel sorry for New York, California folks that are in small hospitality, businesses. Gyms, that type of thing that they’re really trying to kill the small business guy down here. And not only that, they’re putting on these new mask regulations and mandates and vaccinated and unvaccinated and they’re making the business owners police it. I mean, first of all, they’re not qualified for it and they’re having a hard time finding enough employees as it is now. You’re going to have to hire somebody else just to be the,
Jonathan Davis (07:03):
On that note. So I read the, I had nothing else better to do. I read the report from the white house of, you know, the back and forth between it was like Dr. Murphy Fowchee. And then another one, I can’t remember source of the w. Anyway, I just like read the report cause I didn’t watch it. And what was interesting to me, what I took away from that. And again, this is my own opinion. It seemed like they were encouraging people to basically shame others or to, you know, to basically comply with no question. And you know, my personal belief is, you know, demanded compliance is freedom lost. I mean a hundred percent, but that’s just my opinion.
Bill Fairman (07:51):
I’m glad we’re no longer dividing each other. So interest rates have been kind of flat and this week. It hadn’t changed much. I think 30 years, 2 people at 8 something, 15 is in the what?
Jonathan Davis (08:13):
2 and a quarter.
Bill Fairman (08:13):
So nothing’s changed there. Mortgage applications are still down. Those people that have refinanced, have already refinanced
Jonathan Davis (08:23):
And inventory still, all down.
Bill Fairman (08:25):
Applications for purchase are down. It’s the only because of lack of inventory.
Jonathan Davis (08:31):
We talked about this last time, that lack of inventory, but also lack of qualified people or qualified applicants to afford those homes. Like they being priced out of being priced out of a home. Like, I can’t remember if I shared this last week or not. I thought I did about, you know, Zillow offering my neighbor over $50 more than what they would have listed to four with an agent. Like people are just getting priced out of homes.
Bill Fairman (09:02):
I think the FH, FA has decided to allow rental histories as part of the qualifying for any Freddie loans and the automated underwriting, which apparently they didn’t because it wasn’t on their credit. It wasn’t figured in as part of the, now you still had to get a verification of rent to show that you were paying on time, but they have an algorithm in a computer when they underwrite you
Jonathan Davis (09:35):
To get their debt DTI.
Bill Fairman (09:37):
Right. And now it’s going to be included in that, which they didn’t include before. That’s something to keep an eye on with the rental history, with the people that weren’t paying rent during COVID the landlords are saying, Hey, no, they didn’t think he’s quite, yeah, how’s that going to affect them? No,w that might be an incentive to make sure that they get their rent paid on time. Oil prices are dropping it’s down to $63 barreling earlier in the week. It was still, uh, 67, 68 dollars a barrel. So I think that’s a little more of a reflection on how the economy is kind of slowing up a little bit. When you look at the consumer numbers that January or July sales and August where they haven’t got the August sales yet, but July sales were down a little bit. Yeah. The good news is big business, industrial sales and cap ex spending on businesses are still going pretty high. So the consumer is holding back a little bit, but businesses are spending money.
Jonathan Davis (10:45):
Bill Fairman (10:45):
Because they’re assuming there’s going to be some growth. And then we’ve got, you know, the obvious supply chain issues that are going to be worked out.
Jonathan Davis (10:58):
And that’s, I mean, that’s honest that that came up today when I was chatting with a potential equity deal that we were doing. I mean, it was a new construction and that was the whole, you know, core focus of the conversation was supply chain issues overruns on costs overruns on time, you know, what would be the potential of capital calls, et cetera, you know, of going on that, because that’s the number one focus right now is supply chain and costs.
Bill Fairman (11:29):
Yeah. So, last week we did a little walk around rock hill and we have a builder that is building a couple of homes here right now. One of them is one that we financed and is expect home. And the other one is already sold
Jonathan Davis (11:47):
Bill Fairman (11:48):
And he’s, well, I’m talking about the new construction,
Jonathan Davis (11:51):
Oh the new one, okay.
Bill Fairman (11:54):
It was pre sold and we’re assuming the borrower got the financing for it. So here’s the deal. If the borrower who’s getting the financing for it. And I wonder what his contract was like, we need to talk to him about that. Did he leave it kind of open-ended on what the prices are gonna be? You’re giving you my price. Is it gonna, you’re going to be able to hit that target by the time you finished the house? If it’s not, pre-sold like the house we’re doing, he can sell it for whatever he wants, but when he finishes. You know, based on what it costs, but if you’ve made a commitment to somebody, is there something in that contract that says,
Jonathan Davis (12:38):
You have to have materials.
Bill Fairman (12:38):
And how does the bank do that? They have to make sure that they ended up money in their own account
Jonathan Davis (12:45):
Yeah. I mean, what’s your contingency budget? You know, most people don’t go over 5% on the continuously and honestly, two or three is pretty typical on contingencies. Just extra cash that you keep in the account just for overruns.
Bill Fairman (12:59):
Okay. Well, as we know, things are a lot more expensive.
Jonathan Davis (13:03):
Well, I know it’s like a track home builder is actually in Savannah and they’re building new homes and basically they were changing the price by, I think it was five or $10,000 every month. So if you got in July, you know, it X price, the next month would be $10,000 more and they have a better control over their material costs. Cause it’s like a community of like 200 homes. They’re all track homes. So even they were increasing the prices by five to 10 grand.
Bill Fairman (13:33):
Well, some other things he might start doing too is just giving them a fixed credit for appliances instead of putting them in themselves and say, here, I’m going to give you, this is the amount I’m spending on appliances. I’ll give it to you by your own. And then a lot of people would do that because they wanted upgraded appliances anyway, but now they’re sharing it because you know, you never know what the appliances are going to cost by the time it’s ready to put it. Okay. So that’s it for the breaking news. Thanks for hanging in there with our little long-winded breaking news. Let’s talk about our ugly question of the day.
Bill Fairman (14:19):
And so our ugly question is, is it normal? Is inflation running rampant or is it normal? Does the $800 increase in a refrigerator in just one year? We were talking about that a little bit. No, it’s not normal and yes, inflation is, again, we don’t know if it’s going to be temporary, if it’s going to be long-term I know there’s inflation because of splat chain issues, but there’s also inflation caused by too many dollars chasing too few products. And if we have an, it depends on the government on what they’re going to do, I will tell you this, the fed has decided to start tapering their purchasing of treasury, US treasury, which is going to do a couple of things. One of them is going to raise rates because you’re actually going to be able to sell bonds at a normal market price instead of having a giant government.
Jonathan Davis (15:23):
Wouldn’t it be interesting if you didn’t raise rates? Wouldn’t that be interesting?
Bill Fairman (15:27):
Yeah. I don’t think that’s going to happen, but it’ll be more of a market value. Jonathan and I were just talking about this yesterday, there are banks now selling the risk of their short-term loan. So when a regular mortgage company makes a loan, the way they operate their business is the bank will give them a line of credit that lasts for typically 90 days. It’s a revolving line of credit. So when they make a batch of Fannie Freddie loans, they have 90 days to sell it to somebody else or to Fannie Freddie. Yeah. And if that loan defaults in that 90 days, then, you know, the banks kind of holding the, actually it’s, the mortgage is going to be kind of holding, they have to back pack.
Jonathan Davis (16:17):
Correct, they do.
Bill Fairman (16:21):
At some point, if the mortgage company can’t pay it, then the bank is, is on the hook for it. So they’re selling the risk,
Jonathan Davis (16:31):
The default risk.
Bill Fairman (16:31):
The default risk to people that are chasing yield and your
Jonathan Davis (16:38):
I love that you used the word chase, like the phrase chasing yield, tell them what they’re paying.
Bill Fairman (16:43):
They’re getting 5%.
Jonathan Davis (16:46):
Woah, there. Chasing, Big well. Well of the yield there
Bill Fairman (16:52):
Now thinking about this. The risk to a defaulting Fannie Mae loan. Remember, Jonathan was just talking about how hard, how much harder it is to get a Fannie Mae loan. The credit scores are higher. The debt to income ratios are much lower, so it’s harder and harder to qualify for one of these loans. The chances that you’re going to default in the first 90 days are minuscule.
Jonathan Davis (17:21):
You would think so.
Bill Fairman (17:22):
Don’t you think?
Jonathan Davis (17:22):
Bill Fairman (17:26):
But there was a bank out of Texas, I believe it was, they sold $275 million worth of these default risks. And, you know, they’re getting paid a 5% return to this.
Jonathan Davis (17:41):
I get it. I get it.
Bill Fairman (17:43):
Again, we were joking that even junk bonds now are returning four and 5% yield. When it used to, back in the day, you were getting a way in double digits on junk bonds. Because again, there’s a reason they call it junk.
Jonathan Davis (18:02):
They’re really good. Really, really good.
Bill Fairman (18:04):
It’s a pretty high risk. Well, Randy Better sent me this article this morning, which I think works out really well with what we’re talking about, you know, in the housing market. And we’re talking about the lack of supply, the inflation that we don’t know if it’s going to, well, it will end, but we don’t know when and how high it will get. And then we have this extra that’s in the article is entitled bubble talk. So this fellow Ben Winnick of the business insider and this article, and it was basically three reasons why we’re approaching a housing bubble in the US
Jonathan Davis (18:46):
And when, and just so when everyone here watching, so when you say a housing bubble, what is the occurrence of that? Cause I know everyone’s mind goes to 2008.
Bill Fairman (18:56):
Well, that’s what they constantly compare it to and then we’ll be in here. So yeah, reason number one prices are above the bubble letters or levels Case-Shiller index is exceeded the Heights of the late two thousands. Boom. Now I did go back and read the article to make sure was the first thing I thought of was is this inflation adjusted? Because sure, it’s going to be higher than the two thousands stuff goes up in price. That to me, even with inflation adjusted, if we’re just now a little bit over top of the original bubble numbers, that’s still well within normal appreciation over time. So I kind of discount the prices if you’re comparing them in 2006.
Jonathan Davis (19:41):
Yeah. I mean, and the reason for them is a much different factor than if you compare them to that 2006
Bill Fairman (19:50):
Exactly. And we’ll get that to that in a minute, but we know speculation, lack of inventory. So houses are selling with bubble intensity
Jonathan Davis (20:01):
Bubble intensity. Wow.
Bill Fairman (20:03):
So beyond the price growth of the porosity of which the homes are selling is possibly the wildest on record.
Jonathan Davis (20:10):
So beyond pressure of the ferocity with math, and then you have to ask why and where yeah. More importantly, who?
Bill Fairman (20:21):
Yeah. If we break these numbers down, uh, everything, and again, they’re using national averages. So we know that in places where people and I showed you that migration chart last week. Places where people are moving out of, aren’t going to have the same intensity of places where people are moving to. Again, we go back to inventory issues, right?
Jonathan Davis (20:47):
A hundred percent.
Bill Fairman (20:49):
And we also have to worry about, uh, you know, a fear of missing out thing going, going on because you have really low rates and you have, am I going to be able to find a house in the area I want to be in? So that’s gonna help that, right? And then the third one rents are spiking higher. Nationwide the price to rent ratio rose just above 1.5 in 2006. And they sat at 1.4 or 5 in may of this year. I don’t know what the hell that means, frankly, I should have gone back and read the numbers. But, why would you think rents are going up?
Jonathan Davis (21:31):
Because they’re being controlled by large firms that have massive portfolios of rentals.
Bill Fairman (21:39):
That’s one. Another reason rents are going up, is it because it costs more for the houses now? So if you’re paying more for the house,
Jonathan Davis (21:51):
It costs more to buy the house. It costs more to build the house.
Bill Fairman (21:53):
It costs more to maintain the home. It costs more for your property managers.
Jonathan Davis (21:59):
Well, and you better believe that every municipality reassessed those property taxes.
Bill Fairman (22:05):
That’s right. Because the values of the homes have gone up all the municipality, listen to that. I live in union county. They voted to raise property taxes there as well.
Jonathan Davis (22:14):
It’s almost like that, you know, like municipality forced gentrification, like they’re, like I I’ve seen so many wholesalers with deals and they’ve got it from people who can’t afford their taxes on their homes anymore because the taxes in some cases went up close to a thousand dollars in a year. Um, and people are just selling it cause they’re like, well, I can’t afford to live here anymore. It’s interesting.
Bill Fairman (22:36):
Now, they did go, this article was presented in a Roofstock newsletter, so they had their own commentary. And this was what was later discussed in the article is that the credit worthiness of the mortgage borrower and lending standards are significantly different from 2006 further, the pandemic exacerbated supply chains created pent up demand for different housing types. Meaning most people were moving out of multi-family in the single family cause they didn’t want to be stuck up against somebody else that had the disease and it also allowed them to move further away from their jobs as well. Taking a look at mortgage debt as a percentage of disposable income, we are at all time lows. So people are saving money. They’re not going to get into the same financial situation.
Jonathan Davis (23:30):
The reason for the pricing increase is completely different than it was in 2006. So I haven’t read this article, but I would disagree that there is an imminent bubble coming.
Bill Fairman (23:43):
I think a lot of times people do these bubble things just so they can get somebody to click on the headline.
Jonathan Davis (23:50):
We’re reading about housing bubbles since 2016. So I mean it’s, and in 2016 is nothing like it was or like it is now.
Bill Fairman (24:00):
And then part of the argument against is that the current Redfin data points to a cooling of the housing market as a share of homes for sale, increasing for the past three months to 4.9%, which is good. There’s more houses coming on the market now. More houses being listed. They’re staying on the market a little bit longer, 17 days, which is at the land. That’s a long time to be able to work at 17 days.
Jonathan Davis (24:32):
Half a month, man. I sweat in it for those 17 days of your house to be sell
Bill Fairman (24:36):
And then the percentage of houses in may selling for less,
Jonathan Davis (24:41):
Than list price?
Bill Fairman (24:41):
Yeah. Less of a premium above the listing price is going, starting to go down, but listen, that’s going to happen. You’re going to have, when you have supply and demand issues, when there’s not enough supply, people are going to be willing to pay more. And they’re going to, there’s going to be a frenzy to the purchase as people start saying, well, this is not really the market for me to ban. I’m just going to continue to rent that houses are going to stay on the market a little bit longer. Those folks started to panic a little bit and they start dropping their prices and you have to let market forces do their job.
Jonathan Davis (25:21):
That’s right. I’m just tired of people who are like housing prices are higher than they were in 2006. We’ve got to be in a bubble. It’s like, well, of course housing prices, that’s why we invest in houses because they go up over time.
Bill Fairman (25:34):
Well, you need to put, you have to have shelter, food and shelter. Now, as part of this and if you’re not getting part of these Roofstock newsletters, you need to sign up for their stuff. Anyway, they’ve got some good information in there. Whether you’re buying homes with them or not, they do give you some, some good information.
Jonathan Davis (25:59):
What would you think? Do you think that we’re heading into a bubble?
Bill Fairman (26:03):
Jonathan Davis (26:03):
Bill Fairman (26:03):
A short answer, no.
Jonathan Davis (26:05):
I was hoping we were gonna disagree on that.
Bill Fairman (26:07):
Nope. Now let’s talk about real quickly because our next show that we have coming up at one o’clock, we’re going to have Jim Shiels on, he does a build to rent and there’s a link to our next show. He’s a great guy. He has a build to rent operation in Jacksonville, Florida. He’s got, actually he’s all over Florida now. But he is based out of Jacksonville. And there’s also a small landlord update in here and they’re getting their teeth kicked in with these rent moratoriums. And oh, by the way, a Supreme court found that it is unconstitutional for the CDC to extend a rent moratorium that they have to have Congress do it, not the CDC. They don’t have the authority,
Jonathan Davis (26:58):
Who would’ve thought?
Bill Fairman (26:58):
Which we already all knew that.
Jonathan Davis (27:01):
Wou would’ve thought that?
Bill Fairman (27:01):
But of course the administration is appealing. And by the time all this gets through to the courts an extension date will have expired. So it doesn’t really matter. But the problem is the small landlord, the more than 50% of the rental, the residential rental market is people that have fewer than 10 units. Yeah. And a lot of these people that did it for their retirement, a very few, you can’t, so you can’t live, make a living off of 10 units of rental. So it’s a supplement for your current income, or they’re doing this for their future retirement.
Jonathan Davis (27:39):
It’s a retirement strategy for most people.
Bill Fairman (27:42):
And so you’ve had all these people that are not getting their rents, and if they have mortgages on it, they’re either defaulting on their own mortgages for these homes, or they’re taking the money out of their pocket to make sure that it gets paid. And then, so what’s going to end up happening. We’re going to end up with more inventory on the market at some point. And based on this small landlord update, I think we’ve seen a lot more people sell.
Jonathan Davis (28:06):
I think every landlord that loses a home through foreclosure because of a tenant not paying for a government incentivized program, she’d collectively get together and sue the government.
Bill Fairman (28:18):
And it says here that as of February, 2021, almost a quarter of these mom and pop landlords. And again, these are people that have fewer than 10 properties. Where did, where was I? Yeah. Almost a quarter of these mom and pop landlords have sold their property since February
Jonathan Davis (28:41):
And who is and who bought them?
Bill Fairman (28:43):
Well, typically it’s going to be your big portfolio.
Jonathan Davis (28:47):
Your big portfolio, yeah, exactly. It’s so, you know, and you start connecting dots, it’s it gets a little even go down rabbit trails.
Bill Fairman (28:55):
Are these big companies in the housing business? Because they don’t want to make 5% of risk default.
Jonathan Davis (29:02):
Yes. They don’t want to make 5%. And why are they willing to overpay by $50,000? Because they know that the future is in
Bill Fairman (29:11):
Jonathan Davis (29:11):
Jonathan Davis (29:11):
Yep. Single family housing to be exact. All right, folks, thank you so much. I hope this information was helpful to you.
Jonathan Davis (29:22):
And if it wasn’t direct all your emails to Bill
Bill Fairman (29:26):
Thanks again for joining us on the real estate investors show hard money for real estate investors. We are Carolina Capital Management. We are lenders in the Southeast for real estate investors. If you’re interested in borrowing money, go to CarolinaHardMoney.com and click on the, a plan out tab. If you’re a passive investor, looking for passive returns, click on the accredited investor tab and don’t forget to like share subscribe. Where’s our bell?
Jonathan Davis (29:54):
I got to get them to hit the bell.
Bill Fairman (29:55):
And don’t forget to sign up for Wednesday with Wendy. Again, we have a link in the chat for her calendar. She donates one week, one week, one day a week to help others. So get on the schedule. All right guys, it was a pleasure. We shall talk to you soon. Don’t forget about our one o’clock show with Jim and he’s a great guy. He’s got great information. Take care.