174 Real Estate Market Update – Deflation | REI Show – Hard Money for Real Estate Investors!
Join the Carolina Capital team LIVE, every Thursday at 12:00 pm ET for the Real Estate Investor Show – Hard Money for Real Estate Investors!
This week Bill Fairman, Wendy Sweet, and Jonathan Davis will once again deliver the Real Estate Industry Update.
What trends have you seen over the month of August? Good? Bad? Indifferent?
0:01 – Introduction: “ Deep dive into Deflation ”
1:28 – Wednesday with Wendy: https://calendly.com/wendysweet/wednesdays-with-wendy?month=2021-09
2:12 – Welcome back Wendy!
4:15 – Wendy’s Itinerary from her latest field trip – firstname.lastname@example.org
4:49 – Breaking News!
5:33 – Continuing unemployment claims
7:39 – Possibility that people decided to work for themselves
8:32 – Interest rates remain stable
11:09 – When did Carolina Hard Money & Carolina Capital Management start?
12:59 – Real Estate Market Update
13:39 – Hedge funds are buying properties at 20% over the retail
17:31 – Commercial real estate space is going to be underutilized
18:40 – Jonathan’s thoughts on market’s appreciation, deflation & inflation
22:19 – Assets that continue to rise – Real Estate
25:00 – Invest in self-storage
Carolina Capital is a hard money lender serving the needs of the “Real Estate Investor” and the “Small Builder” borrower who is striving to build wealth and generate income for themselves and their families. We offer “hard money rehab loans” and “Ground-up Construction Loans” for investors only in NC, SC, GA, VA, and TN (some areas of FL, as well).
As part of our business practices, we also serve as consultants for investors guiding them to network with other investors and educating them in locating and structuring transactions. Rarely, if ever, will you find a hard money lender willing to invest in your success like Carolina Capital Management.
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Bill Fairman (00:02):
Hello everyone. And welcome to the Real Estate Investor Show, Hard Money for Real Estate Investors. So this is the point where I tease what’s coming up. Well, Wendy’s back. Jonathan has been here as a stalwart while when she was gone.
Wendy Sweet (00:22):
Thank you, stalwart.
Bill Fairman (00:22):
We’re going to talk a little bit about Wendy’s trip out west and it was by car. So it’s gotta be interesting. And then we might even throw in a little deflation since I bought a couple of floaties.
Jonathan Davis (00:35):
There you go.
Bill Fairman (00:35):
All of that right after this
Bill Fairman (00:51):
Again, thank you so much for joining us on the Real Estate Investor Show, Hard Money for Real Estate Investors. We are Carolina Capital Management. We are lenders in the Southeast are real estate investors. If you were interested in borrowing money and you’re a real estate investor, go to CarolinaHardMoney.com and hit the apply now tab, if you’re a passive investor, looking for a passive returns, click on the accredited investor tab as well. If you are interested in talking to Wendy about anything real estate, don’t forget to sign up for Wednesday with Wendy Wendy gives up her Wednesdays to talk to folks about real estate. She’ll do a little 30 minute zoom call with you. When you want to do that, you need to go ahead and get on her calendar because she’s backed up for several months and don’t forget to subscribe, share, like hit the bell, all that good stuff.
Wendy Sweet (02:03):
It’s hard repeating the same thing every time, isn’t, brother?
Bill Fairman (02:06):
I have a teleprompter, I still can’t get it right? Welcome back!
Wendy Sweet (02:11):
I’ll tell you why. It was a really exciting to be out of town, out of pocket outlay. Like we were in the desert and the mountains, but couldn’t get internet, which was, you know.
Jonathan Davis (02:21):
It was nice, right?
Wendy Sweet (02:23):
It was really nice. It was really nice. What was really nice is that I knew I didn’t have to worry about anything back here, that everything was taken care of. And it’s so much neat in the office, but yeah, it was really, really an absolute pleasure
Bill Fairman (02:40):
That you didn’t have to harvest, any of those chickens
Wendy Sweet (02:44):
They all lived through it. So that was a good thing, but wow, what an incredible trip and, and the bookings that still came through for the Wednesdays with Wendy, I was really, really pleased on that.
Bill Fairman (02:57):
That’s cause we get pushing.
Wendy Sweet (02:57):
Bill Fairman (02:59):
I keep promoting you.
Wendy Sweet (02:59):
I did get to listen to it. And you kind of made fun of me the first time you were talking about it, talking about how quiet it was in the office, because I wasn’t here.
Jonathan Davis (03:10):
We need [Inaudible].
Wendy Sweet (03:10):
I thought, I need to write that down and make sure they know I can hear you.
Bill Fairman (03:16):
Well, what you should have done was typed into the chat “I can hear you!”.
Wendy Sweet (03:19):
Well, I wasn’t, I listened to it after the fact because I could only intermittent service every now and again, but.
Bill Fairman (03:27):
It was quieter.
Wendy Sweet (03:27):
I’ll take it out west. That’s where we were on. We were in Montana, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas. I mean, it was just, it was amazing. Just beautiful, beautiful country scenery. We even, can’t four of the 13 nights I was gone, which was exciting. Of course the next day was a little rough, but it was, oh yeah, I had mattresses. It was, it was just really neat to see all the landscape and the animals. And you know, you can’t go out there and not appreciate your God, but when you see stuff like that, it was just really, really amazing. I’m putting together an itinerary because I’ve had so many people ask me about theorder in which we did things and where we stayed. So I’m putting together an itinerary that I’m going to share with everybody. So if you’re interested in that email me, Wendy@CarolinaHardMoney, and I will send you the itinerary we did.
Bill Fairman (04:37):
That would be .com.
Wendy Sweet (04:37):
Bill Fairman (04:37):
Most people know that but there’s a whole lot of different dot somethings. So you have to be specific now.
Bill Fairman (04:48):
Well, let’s get on a little,
Wendy Sweet (04:50):
Bill Fairman (04:50):
Normal breaking news
Wendy Sweet (04:54):
Oh, yeah. That’s it.
Bill Fairman (05:06):
And this is obviously breaking business news
Wendy Sweet (05:09):
Because the real breaking news is going on in Qubole and that’s just heartbreaking. You know, we just heard that they had an explosion at the airport and gosh, we need to be praying for the people over there. Not only people that are coming out, but the people that are stuck and staying, and it’s sad. So we need to keep those folks in our prayers. For sure.
Bill Fairman (05:31):
So with that in mind, thank you for the segue into interest rates.
Wendy Sweet (05:40):
You said it was quieter.
Bill Fairman (05:43):
Continuing claims or they were a little above estimates, but it was only like 3000. So they were expecting continuing unemployment claims of 350, 000 and 353 came in. So not a big deal. They weren’t off much. I’m sorry. Those were new, continuing or still in the 2.8 million range. I’m telling you those continuing are gonna drop like a rock after September, because that’s when the extensions and 21 states that still allow it. Are going to be cut off and people will have to go out and get jobs at that point not unless they extended again.
Wendy Sweet (06:27):
Well, you know, I’m really, I’m surprised at the amount of people that are really still choosing not to work. I mean, we even, you know, we’re searching for a marketing director here and, you know, some accounting help as well.
Jonathan Davis (06:43):
Also in our loan department.
Wendy Sweet (06:47):
Yeah. It’s them.
Jonathan Davis (06:48):
When you, I mean, it’s like, you would suspect there’ll be more. And even with our like today, like we are paying more for these. Some of them are entry-level positions, we’re paying way more than we ever have, and we’re still not getting as many applications that we would normally get, you know, 50 applications for a position we might get 10 or 10, 15, maybe?
Wendy Sweet (07:19):
That’s right. That’s rough.
Bill Fairman (07:21):
Yeah. No. Everyone that’s in business for themselves struggling to find qualified assistance.
Wendy Sweet (07:31):
I mean, mean, even the, still the fast food places, all the restaurants they’re limiting their hours just because they don’t have staff.
Jonathan Davis (07:40):
Well, Chris Wilson says, it possible that people have decided to work for themselves? I think that’s a piece of it. I think that, you know, people have decided to take up that entrepreneurial spirit in, you know, in the wake of everything that happened with COVID. I think that’s a piece of the answer. I don’t think that’s the entire answer.
Wendy Sweet (07:56):
Yeah, but that’s a good one.
Bill Fairman (07:57):
Well, don’t trap me in the gig economy in California, though. They’re going to make you join a self employment union. Apparently
Wendy Sweet (08:07):
I’m telling you, that state is just amazing. I met a woman that when we were out on our trip and we’re walking in the morning and she was kind of walking in the same direction and we introduced ourselves, she said, I’m not from California. Let me just first apologize for my state.
Jonathan Davis (08:22):
I feel like there’s people from Oregon to me too, every time I meet someone from Oregon, they’re like, I’m so sorry for what, what are our governors doing
Wendy Sweet (08:30):
I have the laugh of that
Bill Fairman (08:32):
That said interest rates remaining stable. The housing starts, we actually were up year over year for July, I think it was 700 and some change. New housing sales, actually new housing sales
Jonathan Davis (08:52):
And starts, are up too, right? So numbers down, that’s a piece of it
Wendy Sweet (08:57):
Than another. And that’s a great, great thing going on for sure.
Bill Fairman (09:01):
Well, lumber is down a little bit. I mean,
Jonathan Davis (09:03):
I mean, It’s only 65% over what it was. At least it’s not 1400% over what it was.
Bill Fairman (09:12):
I mean, we still have tons of supply chain issues. We have a friend that, Glen Stromberg is in the manufactured housing business and he’s got his thumb on the manufactured housing manufacturers and they’re 12 to 14 months out on deliveries. He was saying that one manufacturer was telling them I got 10 brand new houses sitting out there in the parking lot. And I can’t deliver them because I can’t get doors.
Wendy Sweet (09:45):
Yeah. It’s kind of crazy. Even siding. I was picking out siding yesterday for new houses that we bought over the past two weeks and the colors, I mean, there’s like 14 colors to choose from, but they only had three of them in stock.
Jonathan Davis (10:03):
Oh my goodness.
Wendy Sweet (10:03):
That you could get ahold of. I was like, wow, that’s amazing.
Bill Fairman (10:11):
My neighbors, my new neighbors when I was on my way to the gym yesterday, I stopped by the house cause I forgot to pick up. And this is how cheap I am. I forgot to bring some hydration with me. So instead of buying it there at the gym for two bucks, I stopped at the house and got my own. I only use $4 worth of gas. That said, I was backing out and best buy was delivering a new dryer to my people that just moved in. And as I’m backing out, I rolled down the window and I said to the fellows as expensive as the plants as are, I’m surprised they’re not sending you out with armed escort. And now I’m a little worried whether he was thinking that they might be stealing them, somebody stealing it from them. No, that’s not what I meant.
Jonathan Davis (11:09):
It looks like Scott asked, when did a CCM start? Carolina Capital Management. Carolina Hard Money has been lending since 2001. Is that right? That was one and CCM, which is our fund arm has been lending since 2014.
Wendy Sweet (11:25):
Bill Fairman (11:25):
Wendy Sweet (11:27):
Bill Fairman (11:28):
Actually Carolina Hard Money didn’t start lending until 2011. Wendy, herself had been doing that since 2001 on the hard money side.
Jonathan Davis (11:40):
Bill Fairman (11:41):
But Carolina Hard Money. Didn’t start until actually it was at the very end of 2010 when they like no, November, 2010
Wendy Sweet (11:51):
I’m lending since 2001.
Bill Fairman (11:52):
I didn’t say that.
Wendy Sweet (11:53):
Bill Fairman (11:54):
I said Carolina Hard Money.
Wendy Sweet (11:55):
Oh yeah. The Carolina Hard Money itself, yeah.
Bill Fairman (11:58):
See, she never listens to me.
Wendy Sweet (12:01):
No, actually. I was reading a comment from a guy by the name of Michael Marr and I offended him on California. I am really sorry. That was not my intention. California is a beautiful state. There’s just crazy government going on. They all have issues. We all have issues.
Jonathan Davis (12:18):
Theres multiple state that has. Same thing. I mean, this isn’t a political show, but everyone can have their own opinions. But anyway,
Wendy Sweet (12:26):
But I am profusely, sorry for offending Michael Marr
Bill Fairman (12:32):
Listen, I’ve traveled to California quite often. Not recently because of the restrictions and stuff, but I frankly wouldn’t live there because I couldn’t afford it.
Wendy Sweet (12:46):
Let’s keep digging.
Bill Fairman (12:46):
Seriously. I couldn’t afford to live there, but it is beautiful, but absolutely the price of living in paradise, I suppose,
Jonathan Davis (12:55):
Perfect weather comes with a cost.
Bill Fairman (12:57):
So let’s talk about kind of where we are in the real estate business, how home sales are going, how alternative investments in real estate that are still recession resistant, like multifamily, self storage build to rent. We had Jim on last week with his build to rent model, we’re seeing didn’t you tell me that somebody’s, a hedge fund, just bumped somebodies house for 25% over retail?
Wendy Sweet (13:35):
No, 20%. It’s 20% over retail, hedge funds. If you’re living in a big city, hedge funds are buying properties at 20% over the retail. And it’s not just one it’s several of them are doing that. And it goes down a little bit and the farther out you go from the larger cities, but it’s crazy what they’re doing. I can’t figure it out of how they think they’re going to get out of this because they’re banking on what they think the economy is going to do and what they think the real estate market is going to do. And it’s so crazy right now. I would be really nervous about that.
Jonathan Davis (14:20):
Yeah, Bill, you, you took it from somebody else. I can’t remember who it was, but you know, the house doesn’t care what it’s worth only how much can it pay. So I think that’s the philosophy that a lot of these companies are going into knowing that you giant hedge funds are buying up tens of thousands of rentals and smaller hedge funds are following suit because once enough stock inventory is under control, you can control the rent rates. I mean, so at that point, it doesn’t matter so much that if there’s a correction in the market and the valuation goes down because you’re still utilizing the depreciation of the asset and you’re still getting cashflow. Even if the appreciation isn’t as strong, you still get these two other factors that, and one of them you can control.
Bill Fairman (15:10):
It says still 70, around 75% of the rental, single family homes are owned by people who have fewer than 10 years.
Jonathan Davis (15:20):
Is it 75 or 50?
Bill Fairman (15:23):
I thought it was like 75.
Jonathan Davis (15:24):
Okay. Well it’s going down every day.
Bill Fairman (15:27):
Yeah, no, I mean there’s,
Wendy Sweet (15:28):
That’s right. That’s right. And we need to be, I mean, what is that going to really do to our first-time home buyers, the small families, people downsizing, you know, in that, what we’re calling recession resistant market, what is it going to do to the people that really buy and want to live there? So much of what we have is really turning into rental properties because they’re buying, I mean, a huge amount of properties.
Bill Fairman (16:02):
Well, here’s listen, there’s still opportunity for the owner occupant. They’re just not going to be able to buy it in the hot markets. The hedge funds are going to be targeting properties that don’t really need to be rehabbed. If they’re paying more than retail
Wendy Sweet (16:20):
Well evven if they doesn’t need work, they’re doing that.
Jonathan Davis (16:21):
Or they does need work?
Wendy Sweet (16:22):
They does need work, sorry.
Bill Fairman (16:22):
All right. So, but they’re targeting properties that are a certain age,
Wendy Sweet (16:28):
Certain age, certain, you know, the normal.
Bill Fairman (16:29):
They’re going to be in certain neighborhoods. So you’re going to have to do as an owner occupant or go outside of those particular sub markets and maybe buy something a little bit older that you’re going to have to work on,
Jonathan Davis (16:44):
Like, the, I can’t get my words out. What you see happening is the pushing of out and away from the jobs. So you have to live further away from potentially, the job centers. Now, if there’s more work from home scenarios, that becomes a greater reality that, okay, that makes sense. But if we start returning back to the office, I mean, that creates a burden on people because either pay the rents and don’t own. Don’t own and be happy or, or live further out and have a one, two hour commute, like that’s tough choice.
Bill Fairman (17:20):
Some of the companies now are requiring that you’re vaccinated or you have to work from home. So that’s going to make more people work from home. It’s going to have fewer people. What concerns me is the commercial real estate space, because that’s going to be under utilized. They’re gonna have to redevelop that.
Wendy Sweet (17:37):
Somebody’s going to get hurt
Bill Fairman (17:39):
Well, listen. It’s not, every market has people that get hurt. Every market has people that are going to benefit. So as things change, you just need to be in the right spot at the right time.
Wendy Sweet (17:51):
Yeah. So knowing the future is the amazing.
Bill Fairman (17:57):
You can’t look into the future. You can be lucky and be ahead of the game, or you can.
Wendy Sweet (18:04):
Be diverse in your investment.
Bill Fairman (18:05):
Be in a group with like-minded people that understand markets in different areas and never put yourself in a position where you only have one or two exit strategies. You need to be nimble and be able to change and react to the market. Although you don’t want to react to the market, you want to be proactive as much as you can, but there’s going to be times where you have to react. But as long as you’re in a position where you can turn that ship fairly quickly, your issues are going to be minimal.
Jonathan Davis (18:39):
In real estate, you know, since the seventies, we have more or less enjoyed constant and consistent appreciation in the market that is coupled with inflation. And because we’ve been, you know, forcing inflation since the seventies all along the way. So at what point does that, I won’t use the word bubble cause I hate the word bubble, but at what point does that program stop working
Wendy Sweet (19:14):
Ans turn into deflation. I mean, you brought that up, you’ve listened to what you were talking about Alicer McDonald?
Jonathan Davis (19:20):
Yeah. Well, he was at, you know, we’ve talked about him before.
Wendy Sweet (19:22):
And then somebody else said he was talking about deflation to you.
Jonathan Davis (19:25):
No I was reading a book.
Wendy Sweet (19:27):
Bill Fairman (19:29):
So you read.
Wendy Sweet (19:29):
So what was the name of that book again?
Jonathan Davis (19:32):
It’s the price of tomorrow. It’s a good read. One of the, I guess the foundation point of the book is we live in a technology or a technological society where we’re constantly advancing in technology and technology at its core is a deflationary.
Wendy Sweet (19:58):
Jonathan Davis (19:58):
Instrument, I suppose. Yeah.
Bill Fairman (19:59):
It makes you more efficient,
Jonathan Davis (20:00):
Like, you know, cell phones don’t cost as much as they used to. You know, you had a cell phone in the nineties, or the early eighties. You’re one of the very first.
Wendy Sweet (20:10):
I had a Brit fund.
Jonathan Davis (20:11):
But now, you know, so it’s a force that keeps, you know, and then it also removes certain jobs. So technology at its course is a deflationary force. And at what point does quantitative easing and printing of more money stop working against that force? That’s the, the core of the book is like, at what point does that stop?
Wendy Sweet (20:39):
And what does that really do to the economy?
Jonathan Davis (20:41):
Yeah, because I mean, in the end, I can’t remember the exact dates, but over a span of like 10 or 15 years, the global economy printed something to the tune of $180 trillion of money addition.
Wendy Sweet (20:53):
That was the US?
Jonathan Davis (20:57):
Yup. And in that same timeframe, it created $40 trillion of GDP. So it took $180 trillion of printing money of inflation to create $40 trillion of GDP.
Wendy Sweet (21:11):
That’s going backwards.
Jonathan Davis (21:12):
So like it at what, you know, and if we believe that, that things like exacerbate and keep moving forward at a faster and faster rate, just like technology does, will it take $350 trillion to create 40 trillion GDP?
Bill Fairman (21:29):
At the same time, through those years, it has lifted up the lifestyle of more people in the lower economic,
Jonathan Davis (21:43):
A hundred percent across the global economy, there are far less people making under a dollar 90 an hour now.
Bill Fairman (21:51):
Well then, it doesn’t matter about,
Jonathan Davis (21:52):
A hundred percent.
Bill Fairman (21:53):
It doesn’t matter about the amount of money is. Let’s face it. Back when they first started with the flat screen, TVs cost you five, six grand to get a small flat screen TV. And it was getting to the point where they were going to start giving them away in cereal boxes, because they were getting so cheap. And that happened with a lot of assets. So there are certain assets that were going down in price, and then certain assets that continued to rise. So real estate is one of them because they only make so much real estate. Right?
Jonathan Davis (22:29):
Bill Fairman (22:29):
Got it. Only making so much real estate. And the real estate that he’s currently making is not going to be habitable for awhile. So you still get that supply and demand thing going on. And then with the ability of technology to increase production at lower costs, it allows people all over the, like I said, the economic ladder to be able to afford a lot more stuff.
Jonathan Davis (22:57):
Sure. So it depends on where you are in the world for that, like GDP is measured across many different metrics. And in the United States, the largest metric is consumerism. So you’re buying consumable goods makes up almost 70% of what we do. Like, so that’s why wages in the US have to be so high compared to everywhere else because we’re consuming all their stuff and their wages. So if we want to build more stuff, we actually have to be paid less.
Wendy Sweet (23:31):
Yeah, that’s right.
Jonathan Davis (23:32):
Like it’s just economics,
Bill Fairman (23:35):
Or is it less people making more money.
Jonathan Davis (23:39):
So it’s like, you know, like China took the whole, you know, I mean, everyone talks about it as like economical. Economically speaking, they were really smart. And they’re like, we’re going to keep wages low production high because our GDP is not going to be based on consumerism. It’s going to be based on import X or exports rather.
Bill Fairman (23:58):
Well recently, given what’s going on with China, actually, Vietnam has become the more lower cost producer of products now. Almost 50% of the seaborne production stuff that’s being shipped over the United States coming out of Vietnam. The shipping, shipping containers, it’s coming from Vietnam, not China. And they run into the same problem. China has with the us is that they’ve spurred on consumerism in China.
Jonathan Davis (24:39):
And once you do that, you have to start raising wages and when you raise wages, people. I mean, don’t want to pay that much because they want, they like the profit margins, you know, the, and again, technology is driving those costs down. So, you know, as a flat screen TV, you can go buy for $300 now
Wendy Sweet (25:00):
The moral of the story is to invest in self storage.
Bill Fairman (25:05):
Right. Everyone around the world needs a.
Wendy Sweet (25:09):
They gotta put to, [Inaudible] to pay your stuff.
Bill Fairman (25:09):
All their junk because they want to buy new stuff, but they don’t want to get rid of their old stuff.
Wendy Sweet (25:14):
That’s right. We got another show coming up shortly.
Bill Fairman (25:15):
Wendy Sweet (25:20):
Yes. You wanna talk about it?
Bill Fairman (25:22):
Yes. Cherub, you mind putting the link up to the next year for us and thank you. It is national women’s equality day. We’re having Heather Dreves and Kristy Moore, both good friends of ours and in mastermind groups with us, those are very powerful women in real estate, and we’re going to feature them on the next show so there’s a link to that. That will be starting at one o’clock. Thank you guys for, for joining us. Again.
Jonathan Davis (25:50):
Thanks for listening to my rant.
Bill Fairman (25:52):
We did kind of ramble today, but that’s all right. We get, that’s why we have this platform.
Jonathan Davis (25:59):
All three of you have to listen to me rant
Wendy Sweet (26:03):
And again, we’re sorry about California. I mean, sorry about digging California
Bill Fairman (26:09):
Anyway, thanks for joining us on the Real Etate Investor Show, Hard Money for Real Estate Investors. We are Carolina Capital Management. We are lenders and real estate investors from the Southeast. If you’re interested in borrowing money, go to CarolinaHardMoney.com and click on the apply now tab.. If you’re a passive investor looking for passive returns, click on the accredited investor tab, don’t forget to like share subscribe, hit the bell. And lastly, sign up with Wednesday with Wendy and to the calendar there.
Wendy Sweet (26:46):[Inaudible] real estate.
Jonathan Davis (26:48):
She will talk to you, all things, California, and what to invest in currently.
Wendy Sweet (26:55):
I do wanna see the rev woods, I do wanna do that.
Bill Fairman (26:55):
Again, it’s a beautiful state. I love going there, but I only liked visiting.
Wendy Sweet (27:03):
Yeah, you like coming home.
Jonathan Davis (27:03):
I can only afford to visit.
Wendy Sweet (27:04):
Bill Fairman (27:06):
That’s right. You have to get up too early there because everything else is going on early in the morning there in California. Alright, you guys have a wonderful day. We’ll talk to you hopefully in 30 minutes.
Wendy Sweet (27:18):
That sounds good.